Quick take: Jobless claims and the U.S. presidential race

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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: FILE PHOTO: Job seekers apply for the 300 obtainable positions at a brand new Goal retail retailer in San Francisco

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By Ann Saphir

(Reuters) – The still-sky-high variety of People who misplaced work in the course of the coronavirus disaster and proceed to faucet unemployment insurance coverage would usually be a troubling signal for a U.S. president in search of reelection, however possibly not this 12 months.

Preliminary claims for state unemployment advantages remained at a seasonally adjusted 884,000 for the week ended Sept. 5, Labor Division knowledge https://www.dol.gov/ui/knowledge.pdf confirmed on Thursday, the identical quantity as every week earlier than and a bit greater than economists anticipated.

All informed, some 29.6 million People had been counting on some type of unemployment insurance coverage as of Aug. 22. That determine equates to a bit beneath a fifth of the entire variety of jobs supported by the U.S. economic system in February, earlier than the present financial disaster hit.

“10.6 MILLION jobs added in 4 months,” the White Home tweeted after the discharge of the most recent jobless claims report, which doesn’t measure jobs added. “That is the Nice American Comeback!”

Graphic: Jobless claims nonetheless elevated – https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-ELECTION/ECONOMY-JOBLESS/azgponxegvd/chart.png

A Labor Division report final Friday confirmed U.S. employers added 10.6 million jobs from April by way of August. That’s lower than half the 22 million jobs misplaced within the first two months of the coronavirus-triggered recession.

Nonetheless, if the stall within the labor market’s restoration helps push a deadlocked U.S. Congress towards settlement on a brand new bundle of aid for households hit by the disaster, the additional assist may bolster assist for the political established order and carry President Donald Trump’s possibilities of beating Democratic challenger Joe Biden within the Nov. 3 election, in line with Daniel Zhao, a senior economist at Glassdoor.

“The truth is that hundreds of thousands of People both unemployed or financially on the sting from pandemic-related losses and monetary aid is a really current and pressing want,” he mentioned.

“In a traditional election 12 months, a monetary stimulus bundle that places 1000’s of {dollars} within the pockets of People and boosts the economic system heading into November would appear like a transparent political winner. Nevertheless, as this 12 months has repeatedly proven, regular guidelines of engagement might not apply throughout a world pandemic,” Zhao mentioned.

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